Nokia’s Q4 2013 Results, My Prediction



Tomorrow (January 22nd) Nokia will release their Q4 2013 sales report.
For the last few quarters I have made predictions on the numbers we’d get from Nokia regarding their sales, particularly focusing on smartphone area. In the last quarter (Q3 2013) I predicted 8.3 million Lumia devices would have been sold, I was out by 500,000 units, they actually sold 8.8 million, a 19% increase over the previous quarter.
This time around I have been trying to work out if the growth (if any) will be higher or lower. Leading up to the holiday season Nokia had their Lumia 520 on some really good offers, and Kantar World Panel numbers show that Windows Phone, on which Lumia smartphones run (not to mention dominate) has been gaining market share.
We did of course see a new flagship, the Lumia 1520 launched, but I do not believe the high end Lumia devices make a huge impact on sales.
With this in mind I believe these factors have supported but not increased the Lumia brand, so am predicting that we will see a 15% growth on the last quarter, meaning sales of 10.1 million devices.
If this is accurate then it would mean Q4 2013 is the first quarter where Nokia have sold more than 10 million Lumia phones, which is great news.
Nokia also count Asha full touch devices among their smartphone sales (somewhat controversially), which in Q3 sold 5.9 million, up 37% on the previous quarter, so I am going to hazard a guess at their sales too. We saw three new Asha full touch devices announced in October, the Asha 500, 502 and 503, all ranging in price from about $60 to $100 with the latter bringing 3.5G connectivity, so I believe these will boost the numbers, but only by 10%, so 6.5 million will be my guess.
While I’m at it I may as well tale a stab at non smartphone sales, last quarter saw 55.8 million non smart Nokia devices sold, and I believe this will decrease by a few percent, possibly as much as 9%, so my guess is 51 million.
As far as profit and operational costs go, I’m not gonna make a guess.
So to sum up, Nokia will sell a total of 16.6 million smartphones, up 12.9% from Q3 2013 when total sales of Lumia and Asha full touch devices sold 14.7 million.
With Nokia in the process of selling their Devices and Services Department to Microsoft I do wonder if we’ll be able to track sales of Lumia smartphones after this quarter, I certainly hope so.
I would be very interested to hear your views on my predictions, or if you have any yourself, be sure to leave them in the comments section.