Will the Double Osborne Effect Kill Nokia?


Apparently there is a name for everything there is Anablephobia- Fear of looking up. Euphobia- Fear of hearing good news and even Logizomechanophobia- Fear of computers.  So are you shocked at all when you hear there is a name for telling your customers that  something better is coming without having  that something better to sell them? (aka shooting yourself in foot?)

There is and it’s called the Osborne effect and it’s rapidly killing Nokia.  According to Wikipedia (the source for all things true and fake)

The Osborne Effect is defined as: A term referring to the unintended consequence of the announcement of a future product ahead of its availability and its impact upon the sales of the current product.

This has happened twice to Nokia in the past 18 months.  First the now infamous “burning platform memo” coupled with the announcement that they were switching to Windows Phone almost a year before they a had a Windows Phone to sell.

Than more recently when Microsoft announced to the world that Nokia’s current flagship Nokia Lumia 900’s would not be upgraded to Windows Phone 8 and in fact that the Kernel has changed so Windows Phone 8 apps wouldn’t work on your brand new Lumia 900.  You don’t have to be rocket scientist to figure out that Lumia 900’s will no longer be flying out of ATT anymore.

So just as Nokia was turning the corner from it’s first premature announcement of Windows Phone Microsoft comes along and gives them a good swift kick in the gut.  Nice job Microsoft!  We couldn’t have held on to the WP8 announcement till Nokia had a WP8 phone to sell?

Imagine if you will Microsoft does WP8 three months from now instead of last week and at the end….they show you the Nokia Lumia 910 Pure View available at ATT next week.  It would have been a tremendous win for Nokia and Microsoft!

Instead Nokia who was just finding it’s feet again was knocked down for a second time by it’s “partner” company Microsoft.  Can Nokia survive the same mistake twice by two separate CEO’s?  I can tell you this much the next few months are about to get worse for Nokia and Microsoft better be there to prop them up or they might fall.

This rant was inspired by: Transitions: The Nokia Way vs. The Microsoft Way thanks for the inspiration Monday Note!